Property/Casualty Insurance Buyers Facing Improved Market Conditions
New Capacity and Absence of Major Catastrophe Losses Soften the Property Insurance Market; Upward Rate Pressure Eases
on Many Other Lines
2014 Marketplace Forecast for North American Insurance Buyers Published Today
NEW YORK, October 8, 2013 - Willis Group Holdings plc (NYSE: WSH), the global risk advisor, insurance
and reinsurance broker, expects commercial insurance buyers to face improved market conditions in 2014, due in
part to declining rates in the Property insurance line and an easing of recent upward pressure
on rates in many other lines of insurance coverage. These are key findings in Willis's semiannual
2014 Marketplace Realities report, published today, which serves as a guide for North American insurance
buyers preparing for upcoming 2014 insurance program renewals.
Willis expects Property rates to fall an average of 10-12% for non-catastrophe-exposed risks, while risks exposed to
natural catastrophes such as hurricanes will likely decrease in the 5-10% range. The forecast reflects a
change since Willis published its Spring Edition of Marketplace Realities where modest decreases were expected for
non-catastrophe exposed risks and rate increases were expected for catastrophe exposed accounts. The downward pressure is
being driven by an influx of alternative capital to the insurance industry, particularly the segment devoted
to catastrophic Property risk. For commercial Casualty lines, buyers should expect a continuation of single-digit increases,
with higher rate hikes in some states, such as California.
Overall, 14 insurance lines will likely see rate increases, while eight will see decreases, according to Willis
experts. However, in many cases, the expected level of rate increase is moderating, and in some
cases, predictions from the spring have reversed. For Errors & Omissions and Trade Credit insurance, spring
predictions of increases have been supplanted by expectations of modest decreases or flat rates. Two exceptions
are Political Risk and Terrorism, where market hardening forces are gathering momentum.
Willis expects rate increases in Casualty insurance lines, including Workers' Compensation and Auto, Employee Benefits, Cyber, Executive
Risks, Crime/Fidelity, Health Care Professional, Construction, Kidnap & Ransom, Political Risk and Terrorism. Meanwhile, rates are
expected to fall in Property, Errors & Omissions, Aerospace, Energy, Environmental, Marine, Surety and Trade Credit.
In the employee benefits space, employers remain preoccupied with health care reform, and while the regulatory changes
may be a contributing factor to increases in health care costs, rate hike predictions are slightly
down from earlier in the year: falling from an overall prediction of 8%-10% increases to 6-7%
increases for self-insured plans and 8.5-9.5% for insured plans. Employers continue to take aggressive steps to
counter these rising costs.
In introductory remarks, Eric Joost, Chief Operating Officer of Willis North America and Senior Editor of Marketplace
Realities, addresses the controversy accompanying the new capital that is impacting the insurance marketplace. "The reaction
has not been all positive, to say the least, especially with respect to the new sources
of capital," Joost writes. However, "some of this represents some real innovation - in an industry
often criticized for conservatism and a lack of innovative progress. From our perspective we see clear
benefits to these new vehicles, because our perspective is really that of our clients. For our
clients - insurance buyers - the increase in supply of capital makes a more inviting marketplace,"
More certain, Joost says, is the reason for the evolution in the industry: "It's the advent of
big data, insurance style - the increased access and ability to work with the data related
to the possibilities of risk transfer." He notes that big data is behind WillPLACE, Willis's ground-breaking
placement platform. He expects that "Big data will be a source of much innovation in the
The 2014 edition of the flagship publication for Willis North America is subtitled "Innovation and Continuity," to
reflect the changes underway in the industry and the evolving role of the insurance broker into
that of "an analytical broker," Joost writes.
Key Price Predictions for 2014
The Marketplace Realities series, which is published in the fall and updated every spring, features market snapshots
of Property, Casualty, Workers' Compensation, Employee Benefits and all Executive Risks lines, as well as key
specialty lines: Aerospace, Cyber Risks, Construction, Energy (upstream and downstream), Environmental, Health Care Professional, Kidnap &
Ransom, Marine, Political Risk, Surety, Terrorism and Trade Credit.
The publication is available free of charge on the Publications page of the Willis website, http://www.willis.com/What_We_Think/Publications/.
To view a video interview with Eric Joost, click here.
Willis Group Holdings plc is a leading global risk advisor, insurance and reinsurance broker. With roots dating
to 1828, Willis operates today on every continent with more than 17,000 employees in over 400
offices. Willis offers its clients superior expertise, teamwork, innovation and market-leading products and professional services in
risk management and transfer. Our experts rank among the world’s leading authorities on analytics, modelling and
mitigation strategies at the intersection of global commerce and extreme events. Find more information at our
Website, www.willis.com, our leadership journal, Resilience , or our up-to-the-minute blog on breaking news,
WilllisWire . Across geographies, industries and specialisms, Willis provides its local and multinational clients with
resilience for a risky world.
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